Gachapon capsule simulator

Gachapon capsule simulator

Gachapon machines in Japan dispense a random capsule toy for a coin. This simulator wraps the idea around a three-reel slot: the Shibuya Gachapon machine pays with 100-yen coins, taiyaki and mecha cat paws, and its gacha tube opens a capsule every 50 spins.

Spin and watch the tube fill. Two golden tickets start a bonus round. The math section shows how much the capsule adds per spin and how often a 50-spin session hits a bonus.

Open this experiment in the lab ↑

Analysis

All numbers below were computed by the same simulator and models that run in the lab above, when this page was built.

Capsule math

The gacha tube fills by one segment per spin and opens a 2,500-coin capsule every 50 spins. At a 50-coin bet that adds 50 coins per spin on top of the machine's RTP: a fixed reward that does not depend on luck. In 2,000 simulated 50-spin sessions on Degen, 36% of sessions triggered at least one scatter bonus.

Volatility at a fixed RTP

Exact figures for Shibuya Gachapon, computed from the reel weights and paytable. Chill and Degen use the same 94.0% return to player; only the distribution of wins changes.

ModeRTPHit rateStd dev per spinTop line paysBonus chance
Chill94.0%19.2%×7.2×5010.9%
Degen94.0%16.6%×11.7×3720.9%
RTP
RTP = Σ paid ÷ Σ wagered
Std dev per spin
σ = √(E[pay²] − E[pay]²)

Questions

How often does a capsule open?

Exactly every 50 spins, whatever the results. It is a fixed reward, so it adds a steady amount per spin rather than a lucky jackpot.

Is this the same as loot boxes?

No purchases are possible. Coins are virtual, have no cash value and cannot be bought, so nothing of value is won or lost.

Are the odds published?

Yes. The analysis below lists the hit rate, bonus chance and RTP computed from the reel weights.

Is it real gambling?

No. Free-to-play entertainment with virtual coins only. 18+.

More experiments

Free-to-play entertainment and math education with virtual coins only. No real money, no deposits, no withdrawals, no prizes. 18+. Simulated results do not predict real outcomes.

18+ | Virtual Coins Only. No real money, no deposits, no cash-out, no prizes. Simulated results do not predict real outcomes.